Another year, another round of high-stakes Assembly elections. In just a few weeks, four major states and one Union Territory will head to the polls. Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Assam, West Bengal, and Puducherry will all decide who they believe should lead them into the next chapter.

For now, let’s focus on the four states commanding national attention: Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Assam, and West Bengal.

Three of them—Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal—have never seen the BJP form a government. In Assam, meanwhile, the party is still relatively new to power, having ended decades of Congress dominance in 2016 and retaining control in 2021.

With the political temperature rising, each state is shaping up to be a battle worth watching.

KERALA

In Kerala, politics has long been defined by a two-front contest: the Left Democratic Front (LDF) led by the CPI(M) and the United Democratic Front (UDF) led by the Congress.

For decades, the two coalitions have traded power almost like clockwork. In fact, the LDF’s victories in 2016 and again in 2021 were considered highly unusual—the first time in years that one coalition managed to win back-to-back elections.

The BJP has struggled to gain a foothold in the state. Its best performance came in 2016 when it won a single seat, only to fall back to zero seats in 2021. The party currently has just one MP in the state, actor-turned-politician Suresh Gopi, representing Thrissur.

Despite the BJP’s increasing efforts, most observers believe the real contest for the Chief Minister’s chair will once again be between the LDF and the UDF.

This election cycle, however, has one major cloud hanging over the ruling Left: the Sabarimala Gold Theft scandal. The controversy has dogged the CPI(M) since 2019 and intensified last year after photos surfaced of the prime accused, Unnikrishnan Potti, alongside CPI(M) leaders.

Of the twelve people arrested so far, two were former Devaswom Board members who were also CPI(M) leaders.

Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan and his party have tried to distance themselves from those arrested, but critics claim a cover-up was attempted to protect the party’s reputation—and perhaps even the Chief Minister himself.

Whether the scandal will prove to be the nail in the coffin for the LDF remains to be seen.

Interestingly, both the LDF and UDF have formed the government seven times each. In that sense, the 2026 election could serve as a political tie-breaker in Kerala’s decades-long rivalry.

TAMIL NADU

Across the border in Tamil Nadu, the political landscape has long been dominated by two giants: the AIADMK, now led by Edappadi K. Palaniswami (EPS), and the DMK, led by the current Chief Minister M. K. Stalin.

Like Kerala, the state has seen these two parties alternate power for decades.

But this time, a new and unpredictable factor has entered the race.

Beloved Tamil actor Vijay has launched his own political party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), and in just a year he has already shaken up the political conversation across the state.

Few analysts believe Vijay has a realistic shot at becoming Chief Minister in this election. But almost everyone agrees on one thing: his arrival has dramatically altered the political landscape of Tamil Nadu.

The journey hasn’t been smooth for the superstar. One of his rallies was marred by a stampede, and his personal life has also spilled into the headlines. His wife Sangeetha filed for divorce, alleging infidelity during their marriage. The controversy intensified when Vijay was seen publicly with actress Trisha Krishnan shortly after the divorce petition was filed.

Meanwhile, the AIADMK has its own internal turmoil. Long-time Jayalalithaa confidant O. Panneerselvam (OPS) recently defected to the DMK, praising Stalin’s governance. The move caused a political storm—not least because images circulated showing Jayalalithaa’s photo removed from OPS’s car and replaced with that of Stalin.

The BJP still lacks a strong base in Tamil Nadu, but it is trying to reposition itself. The party recently replaced K. Annamalai as state chief with former AIADMK leader Nainar Nagendran.

Many analysts see this as a strategic move aimed at strengthening the BJP-AIADMK alliance, which hopes to unseat Stalin’s DMK government in the upcoming polls

ASSAM

Now we move to Assam, the only one of these four states currently governed by the BJP.

Once a Congress stronghold, the state saw a political earthquake in 2016, when the BJP came to power for the first time under Sarbananda Sonowal. The party retained power in 2021, with Himanta Biswa Sarma becoming Chief Minister.

But the 2026 election may prove to be Sarma’s toughest test yet.

Supporters argue that his hardline stance on illegal infiltration has strengthened security and resonated with voters. Yet critics say his tenure has been overshadowed by multiple controversies involving alleged hate speech.

Since taking office in 2021, Sarma has been accused of making several divisive remarks, including the widely criticized “Miya” comment in 2023.

More recently, a video posted on the Assam BJP’s official X account sparked outrage. The clip showed Sarma looking through a rifle scope and appearing to take aim at figures depicted as Muslims before firing. The party later deleted the video and said the individuals responsible had been removed.

Critics, however, claim the Chief Minister must have known about the video and is now attempting to distance himself after the backlash.

Even with these controversies, the BJP still appears well positioned to retain power. The Congress has struggled to mount a strong challenge.

Its new Assam chief, Gaurav Gogoi, has spent much of the campaign dealing with allegations about his wife’s past work in Pakistan. Elizabeth Gogoi, a British citizen, worked there for a year on a climate project, and Gogoi visited during that period.

Sarma has alleged that Gogoi’s trip was “at the invitation of Pakistan’s ISI”—a claim Gogoi has repeatedly and strongly denied.

Whether those accusations will influence voters remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: the BJP will likely make the issue a centerpiece of its campaign.

WEST BENGAL

Finally, we arrive in West Bengal, where Mamata Banerjee and the Trinamool Congress (TMC) have ruled since 2011, when they ended the 34-year reign of the Left Front led by the CPI(M).

Since then, the Left has struggled to regain relevance. The political contest in Bengal now largely revolves around the TMC and the BJP, which emerged as the main opposition after winning 77 seats in the 2021 election.

Two major issues dominate the conversation in Bengal. The first is illegal immigration. Critics accuse Banerjee of being soft on infiltration from Bangladesh, claiming that migrants are given documents and eventually become a reliable voting bloc for the TMC. Banerjee and her party strongly deny these accusations.

The second issue is the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls. Banerjee has fiercely opposed the process, arguing that it is designed to disenfranchise legitimate voters who may not support the BJP.

The dispute recently escalated when Banerjee met Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar, after which she accused him of disrespectful behavior during the meeting.

One thing is certain: the coming months promise political fireworks. Campaigns are already heating up across the country’s political landscape, and each state carries its own set of dramatic storylines.

Will the BJP finally topple Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal?

Will the Congress manage to regain momentum in Assam?

Could Vijay emerge as Tamil Nadu’s unexpected political disruptor?

And in Kerala, will the UDF reclaim power—or will the LDF defy history yet again?

The answers will soon come from the voters.