All eyes in the nation are on Haryana as constituents prepare to cast their votes in the Legislative Assembly elections. This is the first time since the Lok Sabha elections that it is a direct contest between the BJP and Congress parties.

While it is being framed as BJP vs. Congress, there seems to be a consensus among many that Congress will be the one sharing the spoils of victory after the election results. We are witnessing an anti-incumbency sentiment in the state as people are vying for change. This appears to be the culmination of voter anger as well as voter fatigue, and the Congress party has massively benefited, becoming the default choice to take over.

We are also seeing the smaller, regional parties being squeezed out in Haryana. Last time in 2019, the JJP party under Dushyant Chautala won 10 seats, and he, in turn, became the deputy chief minister. In 2014, the INLD won 31 seats. But in this election, both parties would be lucky to get even a handful of seats.

The anti-incumbency sentiment toward the BJP is also extending to its former allies. This is something we have seen before in Assam with the Asom Gana Parishad, where regional parties that backed the BJP have been squeezed out over time.

There also seems to be a mood of dissatisfaction with former Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar, who was in charge of the state for almost 10 years before being moved to Delhi in March of this year. There has been hardly any published material from the BJP in Haryana that mentions Khattar.

The current Chief Minister, Nayab Singh Saini, is also seen as a Khattar loyalist. While he has tried to carve his own path by positioning himself as an OBC (Other Backward Caste) leader, he has only been in power for six months. The BJP would have stood a better chance if they had brought about a change in leadership in Haryana at least a year ago.

The likely candidate for the post of CM from the Congress party, Bhupinder Singh Hooda, seems to have experienced a revival of sorts. He hasn’t done anything of significance yet but has benefited from being in the right place at the right time and is being projected as the Jat face of the party. Other potential Congress contenders, like MP Selja Kumari, have been sidelined for now.

Speaking of the Jats, they have decided to back the Congress party, which is unusual as they have traditionally been anti-Congress. Jats make up a significant portion of the vote bank, with 37 of the 90 seats being decided by them. In fact, the youth, farmers, and wrestlers of the state have shown anti-BJP sentiment. The farmer agitation, the Agniveer protests, and the wrestler protests seem to have culminated in a perfect storm, favoring Congress.

The women wrestlers who took to the streets last year in Delhi to protest against Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh, and Olympian Vinesh Phogat, are much beloved in Haryana. In fact, Phogat is even contesting in the election under the Congress ticket. Outside of Haryana, Phogat may divide opinion, but inside the state, she is heroine number one.

In 2014 and 2019, the BJP benefited from splintering the Jat vote and consolidating the non-Jat vote in its favor, especially after the 2016 Jat reservation riots that split the state.

However, divide-and-rule tactics based on caste seem unlikely to yield favorable results anymore. Not only have the Jats consolidated behind Congress, but the Dalit vote has also significantly shifted. The Dalit population makes up 22% of Haryana.

We saw this happen in the Lok Sabha, and we may see it again in the Vidhan Sabha.

The BJP is hoping that leaders like Mayawati, who has joined forces with the INLD, and Chandra Shekhar Azad, who is with the JJP, can capture a section of the Dalit vote. But at the moment, it seems likely that the Dalit vote will go to Congress.

Finally, the youth in the state seem despondent, as a visible lack of jobs stands out when traveling through Haryana. The state boasts cities like Gurugram and Faridabad, where there is a high-income population, no doubt due to their proximity to Delhi. However, there are also cities like Jhajjar and Meham that are almost forgotten. Localized corruption and very little development are hurting these smaller cities.

These rising inequalities have pushed Haryana to the brink, which is why the people are most likely vying for change. Congress clearly has the advantage in this election, but now we can only wait and see if there will be a twist in the tale.